The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its market report for June 2024, providing a detailed analysis of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market. This report covers trends in home sales, pricing, and inventory, reflecting the market’s response to economic conditions and policy changes.

Sales and Listings

In June 2024, home sales in the GTA showed a notable decline compared to the same month last year. TRREB reported 6,213 sales through its MLS® System, a 16.4% decrease from the 7,429 sales recorded in June 2023. Despite the Bank of Canada rate cut at the beginning of the month, many buyers remained hesitant, postponing their purchasing decisions.

Conversely, new listings saw a significant increase, with 17,964 new entries in the MLS® System, marking a 12.3% rise year-over-year. This surge in listings provided potential homebuyers with a wide array of options, contributing to a well-supplied market and exerting downward pressure on prices.

Pricing Trends

The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite benchmark experienced a 4.6% year-over-year decline in June 2024, indicating a decrease in home values. The average selling price also fell by 1.6% compared to June 2023, reaching $1,162,167. However, on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and the average selling price showed improvement from May 2024, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market.

Market Dynamics

The GTA real estate market dynamics in June 2024 highlighted the effects of supply and demand, influenced by economic factors such as interest rates. TRREB President Jennifer Pearce noted that while the Bank of Canada’s rate cut provided some relief, most buyers are waiting for further reductions before making decisions. Ipsos polling for TRREB indicated that cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points or more are necessary to significantly boost home sales.

TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer commented on the current ample supply in the housing market, which benefits buyers by offering substantial choice and negotiating power. As sales are expected to increase with lower borrowing costs, the elevated inventory levels will help prevent a rapid rise in selling prices.

Government Policies and Housing Affordability

Government policies continue to play a crucial role in addressing housing affordability and availability in the GTA. TRREB CEO John DiMichele emphasized the importance of coordinated efforts among all levels of government to meet housing goals. Ontario aims to build 1.5 million more homes by 2031, requiring the removal of red tape, reduction of financial barriers to home construction, and minimization of housing taxes and development charges. Sustained and actionable solutions are essential to support the region’s long-term housing demand driven by strong population growth.

Detailed Market Statistics

• Total Sales: 6,213 (down 16.4% from June 2023)
• New Listings: 17,964 (up 12.3% from June 2023)
• Average Selling Price: $1,162,167 (down 1.6% year-over-year)
• MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark: down 4.6% year-over-year

Breakdown by Home Type

• Detached Homes:
  • 416 Area: Average price $1,516,070
  • 905 Area: Average price $1,421,377
• Semi-Detached Homes:
  • 416 Area: Average price $1,139,929
  • 905 Area: Average price $997,740
• Townhouses:
  • 416 Area: Average price $1,010,632
  • 905 Area: Average price $766,917
• Condo Apartments:
  • 416 Area: Average price $728,067
  • 905 Area: Average price $655,830

Future Outlook

The future outlook for the GTA real estate market remains cautiously optimistic. As borrowing costs are expected to decrease, market conditions are likely to tighten, leading to renewed price growth. However, sustained improvements in housing affordability and availability depend on coordinated government efforts. Aligning housing policies with population growth and balancing government spending with inflation control will be crucial to achieving a stable, affordable housing market. The market’s ability to adapt to these changes will significantly shape the future landscape of the GTA real estate market.